LA @ ATL — 4th & Data

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HC Sean McVay

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HC Raheem Morris

Monday 2025-12-29 · 20:15 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

69.7%

ATL

30.3%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

LA offense: +0.221 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
QB edge to LA: Kirk Cousins (ATL) -0.065 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.286 EPA/dropback
ATL defense: +0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
ATL offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised
LA on 3 more days rest than ATL

Predicted Final Score

LA 29

–

ATL 21

Projected margin: LA by 8 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

LA

Kevin Dotson G Out Ankle

Josh Wallace CB Out Ankle

Davante Adams WR Doubtful Hamstring

Alaric Jackson T Questionable Knee

Braden Fiske DE Questionable Ankle

ATL

Josh Woods LB Out Not injury related - personal matter

Mike Hughes CB Out Ankle

Sam Roberts DT Out Knee

Clark Phillips III CB Out Triceps

Drake London WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 24

–

ATL 27

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 06:16 TD ATL (6:16) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 7-B.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [0-B.Young]. LA 0 – ATL 6
Q2 08:42 TD ATL (8:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 15-K.Mumpfield INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at LA 34. 3-J.Bates for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – ATL 13
Q2 01:41 TD ATL (1:41) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right tackle for 93 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – ATL 20
Q3 11:12 FG LA (11:12) 92-H.Mevis 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 3 – ATL 21
Q3 07:51 FG ATL (7:51) 45-Z.Gonzalez 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. LA 3 – ATL 24
Q3 05:06 TD LA (5:06) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 18-T.Ferguson for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – ATL 24
Q3 00:43 TD LA (:43) 45-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (8-J.Verse), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at LA 24. 8-J.Verse for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – ATL 24
Q4 02:52 TD LA (2:52) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 23 – ATL 24
Q4 00:25 FG ATL (:25) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. LA 24 – ATL 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(13:35) 13-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to LA 11, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-X.Smith to LA 42 for 31 yards (36-R.Harrison). PENALTY on LA-25-R.McCreary, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at LA 11.
Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 85

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.74 EP

p(convert) 78%

(11:53) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to ATL 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.
Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 11

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 97%

(1:04) 23-K.Williams up the middle to ATL 13 for -2 yards (92-K.Kareem).
Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 52

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 32%

(10:01) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to LA 12, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 41

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 60%

(4:22) 42-E.Evans punts 40 yards to ATL 1, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-88-J.Whittington.
Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 96

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(2:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to LA 35, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-X.Smith to LA 47 for 12 yards (28-M.Ford).
Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 51

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 35%

(13:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 19-X.Smith pushed ob at ATL 15 for 36 yards (3-J.Bates; 24-A.Terrell).
Q3 LA 4th & 12 at the 17

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

(11:12) 92-H.Mevis 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 37

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 69%

(7:51) 45-Z.Gonzalez 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 19

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 93%

(:43) 45-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (8-J.Verse), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at LA 24. 8-J.Verse for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 57

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP

p(convert) 49%

(13:49) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to LA 9, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-X.Smith to LA 20 for 11 yards (85-T.Quitoriano).
Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 27

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 62% p(FG) 86%

(9:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 18-T.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by 31-X.Watts at ATL 25. 31-X.Watts ran ob at LA 43 for 32 yards (9-M.Stafford). PENALTY on ATL, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 43.
Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 49

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EP

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 39%

(7:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to LA 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 33 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 77%

(:25) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 65 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.64 EP

p(convert) 40%

(:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua (24-A.Terrell).