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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 51

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(13:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 19-X.Smith pushed ob at ATL 15 for 36 yards (3-J.Bates; 24-A.Terrell).

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.01 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 51, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model