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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 85

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to ATL 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.27 EP
  • 22% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 85, worth -5.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.70 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 43, worth -2.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.74 EP