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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 19

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(:43) 45-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (8-J.Verse), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at LA 24. 8-J.Verse for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.03 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 19, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP