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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 57

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(13:49) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to LA 9, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-X.Smith to LA 20 for 11 yards (85-T.Quitoriano).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.58 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 57, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP