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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 33

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(:25) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +0.80 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.73 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model