Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 65

Los Angeles Rams 24 – Atlanta Falcons 27

(:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua (24-A.Terrell).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.18 EP
60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -1.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.64 EP