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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 20

New England Patriots 21 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(5:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end ran ob at NYJ 9 for 11 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.57 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 20, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model