4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
NE Away

New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Aaron Glenn
Sunday 2025-12-28 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌨 Snow Spread -12.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

NE
70.5%
NYJ
29.5%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.142 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Drake Maye (NE): +0.294 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NE 27
–
NYJ 19
Projected margin: NE by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

NE

Mack Hollins WR Out Abdomen
Robert Spillane LB Out Ankle
Harold Landry III LB Out Knee
Khyiris Tonga DT Out Foot
Milton Williams DT Out Ankle
Kayshon Boutte WR Out Concussion
Jared Wilson G Out Concussion
DeMario Douglas WR Questionable Hamstring
Jack Westover FB Questionable Illness
Charles Woods CB Questionable Foot

NYJ

Jay Tufele DT Out Foot
Will McDonald IV DE Out Knee
Francisco Mauigoa LB Out Neck
Mason Taylor TE Out Neck
Xavier Newman-Johnson G Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 42
–
NYJ 10

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:46 TD NE (10:46) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 05:09 TD NE (5:09) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD NE (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 38-R.Stevenson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 20 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 09:59 FG NYJ (9:59) 6-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NE 21 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 03:03 TD NE (3:03) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 27 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 00:37 TD NE (:37) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 34 – NYJ 3
  • Q3 08:21 TD NE (8:21) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 86-E.Chism for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 41 – NYJ 3
  • Q4 15:00 TD NYJ (15:00) 20-B.Hall up the middle for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 42 – NYJ 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (9:20) 14-A.McNamara punts 48 yards to NE 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%

    (9:59) 6-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 92%

    (5:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end ran ob at NYJ 9 for 11 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%

    (3:03) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:55) 14-A.McNamara punts 50 yards to NE 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (14:09) (Punt formation) 14-A.McNamara pass short middle to 27-M.Moore to NYJ 46 for 3 yards (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 33%

    (11:50) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 32-I.Davis. 32-I.Davis left end to NYJ 47 for -3 yards (94-C.Durden, 44-K.Chaisson).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 44
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 49%

    (5:40) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short middle to 18-I.Williams to NE 34 for 10 yards (25-M.Jones).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 90%

    (1:52) 36-A.Borregales 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:57) 17-B.Baringer punts 48 yards to NYJ 22, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 8 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 98%

    (4:03) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass incomplete short left to 89-J.Ruckert.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 87 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:33) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to NYJ 42, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 52 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 29%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short right to 84-S.Smartt to NE 40 for 12 yards (24-D.Pettus).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 20 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 92%

    (:58) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short right to 16-T.Johnson to NE 17 for 3 yards (41-B.Schooler; 48-J.Tavai).