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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 3

New England Patriots 21 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.39 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 3, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model