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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 57

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 35

What Actually Happened

(14:09) (Punt formation) 14-A.McNamara pass short middle to 27-M.Moore to NYJ 46 for 3 yards (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.55 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 57, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model