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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 63

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 14-A.McNamara punts 48 yards to NE 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.40 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 63, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP