4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 87

New England Patriots 42 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to NYJ 42, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.64 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 87, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 45, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model