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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 38

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 39-C.Smyth 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.55 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP