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New Orleans Saints

HC Kellen Moore
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
Sunday 2025-12-28 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

NO
49.4%
TEN
50.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: -0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.107 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Cam Ward (TEN) -0.168 vs Tyler Shough (NO) -0.040 EPA/dropback
  • TEN defense: +0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 20
–
TEN 21
Projected margin: TEN by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

NO

Alvin Kamara RB Out Knee
Cesar Ruiz G Out Ankle
Zaire Mitchell-Paden TE Out Knee
Bryan Bresee DT Out Knee
Chris Olave WR Questionable Back
Charlie Smyth K Questionable Illness
Mason Tipton WR Questionable Groin

TEN

Bryce Oliver WR Out Knee
Marcus Harris CB Out Knee
Oluwafemi Oladejo LB Out Fibula
Ali Gaye LB Questionable Knee
Micah Robinson CB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 34
–
TEN 26

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:15 FG TEN (9:15) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. NO 0 – TEN 3
  • Q1 04:35 FG TEN (4:35) 6-J.Slye 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. NO 0 – TEN 6
  • Q2 13:08 TD TEN (13:08) (No Huddle) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – TEN 12
  • Q2 05:58 FG NO (5:58) 39-C.Smyth 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NO 3 – TEN 13
  • Q2 04:02 TD NO (4:02) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 33 for -11 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [99-C.Young], RECOVERED by NO-99-C.Young at TEN 33. 99-C.Young for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – TEN 13
  • Q2 00:17 TD TEN (:17) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 5-E.Ayomanor for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 10 – TEN 19
  • Q3 10:39 TD NO (10:39) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – TEN 20
  • Q3 07:23 FG TEN (7:23) 6-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. NO 17 – TEN 23
  • Q3 01:56 FG NO (1:56) 39-C.Smyth 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NO 20 – TEN 23
  • Q4 12:55 FG TEN (12:55) 6-J.Slye 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. NO 20 – TEN 26
  • Q4 06:26 TD NO (6:26) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 81-K.Austin for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 26 – TEN 26
  • Q4 03:54 TD NO (3:54) 30-A.Estime left tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 33 – TEN 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 28%

    (12:19) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:50) 32-K.Kroeger punts 17 yards to NO 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 72%

    (9:15) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 85%

    (7:41) 39-C.Smyth 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 9 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%

    (4:35) 6-J.Slye 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:15) 32-K.Kroeger punts 38 yards to TEN 36, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-7-T.Hill.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 43%

    (13:08) (No Huddle) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 57%

    (5:58) 39-C.Smyth 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (7:23) 6-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 54%

    (1:56) 39-C.Smyth 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 12 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 51%

    (12:55) 6-J.Slye 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:57) 3-J.Hekker punts 61 yards to NO 3, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Pettis to NO 20 for 17 yards (31-K.Mullings). ** Injury Update: TEN-12-M.Kinsey has returned to the game.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 17 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:03) 3-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to NO 31, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Pettis pushed ob at NO 36 for 5 yards (52-J.Williams).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 60%

    (2:09) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at NO 38 for -1 yards (94-C.Jordan).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 13 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:47) 32-K.Kroeger punts 41 yards to TEN 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 17-C.Dike to TEN 31 for 7 yards (27-I.Yiadom).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (:26) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 5-E.Ayomanor to NO 43 for 14 yards (4-K.McKinstry).