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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 49

Tennessee Titans 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.43 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model