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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 10

Tennessee Titans 20 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 6-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 10, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model