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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 39

New Orleans Saints 17 – Tennessee Titans 23

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 39-C.Smyth 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.89 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 39, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP