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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 32

Tennessee Titans 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.59 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model