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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Tennessee Titans
4th & 10 at the 37
Tennessee Titans 26 – New Orleans Saints 34
What Actually Happened
(2:09) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at NO 38 for -1 yards (94-C.Jordan).
The Three Options
GO
+0.05 EP
What Happened
-
29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.63 EP
- 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -1.43 EP
KICK
+0.28 EP
Model's Pick
- 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
- 40% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT
-0.51 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
