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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 20

Tennessee Titans 3 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 6-J.Slye 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.26 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 20, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model