4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 43

Tennessee Titans 6 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:08) (No Huddle) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.28 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model