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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 64

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:58) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to BUF 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by PHI-7-K.Ringo.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.79 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 64, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 22, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP