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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2025-12-28 · 16:25 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

PHI
40.7%
BUF
59.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.161 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.116 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PHI 25
–
BUF 26
Projected margin: BUF by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

PHI

Lane Johnson T Out Foot
Nakobe Dean LB Out Hamstring
Cameron Williams T Questionable Shoulder

BUF

Matt Prater K Out Quadricep
Jordan Poyer S Out Hamstring
DaQuan Jones DT Out Calf
Jordan Phillips DT Out Ankle
Dawson Knox TE Questionable Knee
Dalton Kincaid TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 13
–
BUF 12

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:39 TD PHI (:39) 79-M.Pryor reported in as eligible. 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – BUF 0
  • Q2 05:07 FG PHI (5:07) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 10 – BUF 0
  • Q2 00:11 FG PHI (:11) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 13 – BUF 0
  • Q4 05:15 TD BUF (5:15) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – BUF 6
  • Q4 00:08 TD BUF (:08) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – BUF 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (13:58) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to BUF 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by PHI-7-K.Ringo.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 17 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:46) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to PHI 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (6:05) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to BUF 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 47%

    (11:07) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to PHI 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Covey. PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 8.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 81%

    (5:07) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 12 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:00) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to PHI 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 8 yards (41-R.Gilliam).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (:11) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:32) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to PHI 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:10) 10-B.Mann punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 15 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 27%

    (6:36) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to PHI 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:14) 10-B.Mann punts 62 yards to BUF 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at BUF 32 for 10 yards (21-S.Brown; 28-W.Shipley).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 99%

    (2:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle to PHI 1 for 2 yards (53-Z.Baun).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:13) 10-B.Mann punts 50 yards to BUF 47, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at PHI 41 for 12 yards (28-W.Shipley).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (11:14) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to BUF 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at BUF 46 for 28 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 12 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:29) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to BUF 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 71 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-T.Shavers to BUF 33 for 4 yards. Lateral to 26-Ty.Johnson pushed ob at PHI 46 for 21 yards (39-M.Epps).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (:08) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.