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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to PHI 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 8 yards (41-R.Gilliam).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.11 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model