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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 10

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(:11) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.12 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 10, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model