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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 71

Buffalo Bills 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to PHI 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.96 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 29, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP