Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 65

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Buffalo Bills 0

(11:10) 10-B.Mann punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.31 EP
66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model