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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 52

Buffalo Bills 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to PHI 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.65 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 52, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model