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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 3

Buffalo Bills 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(2:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle to PHI 1 for 2 yards (53-Z.Baun).

The Three Options

GO +3.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.05 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 3, worth +0.79 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.29 EP
PUNT +0.45 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model