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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 76

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to BUF 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at BUF 46 for 28 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.02 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 34, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model