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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 1

Buffalo Bills 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(:08) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.96 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 1, worth +0.28 EP
KICK +2.97 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth +0.03 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model