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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 41

Carolina Panthers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(7:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 4-T.McMillan (21-D.Witherspoon). Penalty on CAR-17-X.Legette, Offensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.65 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 41, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model