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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
Sunday 2025-12-28 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

SEA
61.7%
CAR
38.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.127 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.175 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Sam Darnold (SEA): +0.175 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CAR offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • SEA on 3 more days rest than CAR

Predicted Final Score

SEA 27
–
CAR 21
Projected margin: SEA by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

SEA

Charles Cross T Out Hamstring
Coby Bryant S Out Knee

CAR

Tershawn Wharton DT Out Hamstring
Trevin Wallace LB Out Shoulder
David Moore WR Questionable Elbow
Robert Hunt G Questionable Biceps
Tetairoa McMillan WR Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 27
–
CAR 10

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:28 FG SEA (3:28) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – CAR 0
  • Q2 03:50 FG CAR (3:50) 10-R.Fitzgerald 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. SEA 3 – CAR 3
  • Q3 08:49 TD SEA (8:49) 26-Z.Charbonnet right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – CAR 3
  • Q3 05:39 TD SEA (5:39) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – CAR 3
  • Q4 13:48 TD CAR (13:48) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 17 – CAR 9
  • Q4 05:36 FG SEA (5:36) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 20 – CAR 10
  • Q4 02:35 TD SEA (2:35) 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 26 – CAR 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 28%

    (13:16) 6-S.Martin punts 35 yards to SEA 18, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 14 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to CAR 20, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 15-Ji.Horn.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:40) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to SEA 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 30 for 13 yards (57-B.Martin-Scott; 48-T.Incoom). CAR-33-R.Rochell was injured during the play.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 81%

    (3:28) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:00) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to SEA 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:30) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to CAR 23, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 40%

    (9:59) Direct snap to 84-M.Evans. 84-M.Evans up the middle to SEA 47 for 1 yard (0-D.Lawrence; 99-L.Williams).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 58%

    (7:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 4-T.McMillan (21-D.Witherspoon). Penalty on CAR-17-X.Legette, Offensive Offside, declined.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.51 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 94%

    (3:50) 10-R.Fitzgerald 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 63%

    (:26) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to CAR 39 for no gain (94-A.Robinson; 56-C.Rozeboom). (Virtual measurement).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (4:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles left end ran ob at CAR 48 for 8 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (5:36) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 17 at the 80 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:47) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 25 for 5 yards (20-J.Love).