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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 39

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(:26) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to CAR 39 for no gain (94-A.Robinson; 56-C.Rozeboom). (Virtual measurement).

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.38 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model