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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 60

Carolina Panthers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(4:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles left end ran ob at CAR 48 for 8 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.30 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 19, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model