Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to SEA 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 30 for 13 yards (57-B.Martin-Scott; 48-T.Incoom). CAR-33-R.Rochell was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model