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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 37

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(:27) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-Z.Biggers), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.76 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model