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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2025-12-28 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

TB
37.7%
MIA
62.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: -0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Baker Mayfield (TB): -0.052 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Quinn Ewers (MIA) has only 2 prior starts in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

TB 21
–
MIA 23
Projected margin: MIA by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

TB

Anthony Nelson LB Out Knee
Tristan Wirfs T Out Toe
Calijah Kancey DT Out Pectoral

MIA

Minkah Fitzpatrick S Out Calf
Jason Sanders K Out Hip
Benito Jones DT Out Back
Isaiah Johnson CB Out Knee
Dee Eskridge WR Doubtful Toe
Tyrel Dodson LB Questionable Chest
Aaron Brewer C Questionable Neck
Andrew Meyer C Questionable Triceps

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 17
–
MIA 20

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:31 TD TB (5:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – MIA 0
  • Q1 04:37 TD MIA (4:37) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left to 81-T.Wease for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – MIA 6
  • Q2 08:23 FG MIA (8:23) 47-R.Patterson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. TB 7 – MIA 10
  • Q2 01:46 TD MIA (1:46) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass short middle to 85-G.Dulcich for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – MIA 16
  • Q3 03:53 FG TB (3:53) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. TB 10 – MIA 17
  • Q4 14:19 FG MIA (14:19) 47-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. TB 10 – MIA 20
  • Q4 00:54 TD TB (:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – MIA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 16 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:09) 16-J.Bailey punts 54 yards to TB 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-K.Johnson pushed ob at TB 32 for 15 yards (16-J.Bailey).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 49%

    (10:22) 44-S.Tucker up the middle to MIA 42 for 2 yards (9-I.Melifonwu).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIA 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (8:23) 47-R.Patterson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 67%

    (:27) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-Z.Biggers), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:34) 9-R.Dixon punts 27 yards to MIA 31, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-82-D.Culp.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

    (3:53) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 96%

    (14:19) 47-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to MIA 4, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-32-J.Hayes.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (8:45) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to TB 22, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:28) 16-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to TB 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 37%

    (4:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at MIA 38 for 11 yards (40-W.Gay).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 62%

    (2:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 30 yards to TB 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-21-A.Davis. ** Injury Update: MIA-3-K.Britt has returned to the game.