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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 15, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model