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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 13

Miami Dolphins 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(14:19) 47-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.34 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP