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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 44

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 44-S.Tucker up the middle to MIA 42 for 2 yards (9-I.Melifonwu).

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model