Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

(5:28) 16-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to TB 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.49 EP
64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model