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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 54

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIA 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.62 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 54, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model