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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 9.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

IND
28.0%
HOU
72.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to HOU: C.J. Stroud (HOU) +0.121 vs Riley Leonard (IND) -0.136 EPA/dropback (IND starting Riley Leonard in place of Philip Rivers)
  • IND offense: -0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 18
–
HOU 25
Projected margin: HOU by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

IND

Sauce Gardner CB Out Calf
Daniel Scott S Out Knee
Will Mallory TE Out Lung
Anthony Richardson QB Out Eye

HOU

Kamari Lassiter CB Out Ankle
Jamal Hill LB Out Calf
Trent Brown T Questionable Ankle
Darrell Taylor DE Questionable Ankle
Ajani Carter CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 30
–
HOU 38

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:11 FG HOU (12:11) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. IND 0 – HOU 3
  • Q1 10:45 TD IND (10:45) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – HOU 3
  • Q1 06:41 FG HOU (6:41) 15-K.Fairbairn 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. IND 7 – HOU 6
  • Q1 00:39 FG IND (:39) 10-B.Grupe 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – HOU 6
  • Q2 09:40 TD HOU (9:40) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 81-J.Higgins for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – HOU 12
  • Q2 08:38 TD HOU (8:38) 72-T.Togiai reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – HOU 19
  • Q2 01:29 TD IND (1:29) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass short right to 14-A.Pierce for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 16 – HOU 20
  • Q2 00:03 FG HOU (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. IND 17 – HOU 23
  • Q3 13:11 TD IND (13:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 23 – HOU 23
  • Q3 06:58 FG HOU (6:58) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. IND 24 – HOU 26
  • Q3 01:47 FG IND (1:47) 10-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 27 – HOU 26
  • Q4 11:20 FG HOU (11:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. IND 27 – HOU 29
  • Q4 02:42 FG IND (2:42) 10-B.Grupe 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 30 – HOU 29
  • Q4 00:17 FG HOU (:17) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. IND 30 – HOU 32
  • Q4 00:05 TD HOU (:05) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass short middle to 2-J.Downs to IND 29 for 4 yards. Lateral to 11-M.Pittman to IND 20 for -9 yards. Lateral to 15-R.Leonard to IND 21 for 1 yard (92-D.Horton). FUMBLES (92-D.Horton), touched at IND 17, RECOVERED by HOU-72-T.Togiai at IND 17. 72-T.Togiai for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 30 – HOU 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 82%

    (6:41) 15-K.Fairbairn 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:20) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez pass short right to 81-M.Alie-Cox to IND 45 for 16 yards (31-D.Clark).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 79%

    (:39) 10-B.Grupe 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:15) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-16-A.Dulin. PENALTY on IND-16-A.Dulin, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 21.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 60%

    (4:07) 6-T.Townsend punts 33 yards to IND 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 2-J.Downs.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%

    (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 32%

    (11:35) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to IND 9, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 2-J.Downs to IND 22 for 13 yards (87-C.Stover).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (10:31) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-J.Noel to HOU 29 for 6 yards (91-J.Tuimoloau; 59-B.Johnson).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 89%

    (6:58) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 30%

    (14:56) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to IND 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 88%

    (11:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 4 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (2:42) 10-B.Grupe 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 88%

    (:17) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.