Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 6

(4:20) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez pass short right to 81-M.Alie-Cox to IND 45 for 16 yards (31-D.Clark).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

What Happened

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.31 EP
55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model