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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 23

Green Bay Packers 14 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson to CHI 1 for 22 yards (29-T.Stevenson). FUMBLES (29-T.Stevenson), recovered by GB-87-R.Doubs at CHI 1.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.09 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model