GB @ CHI — 4th & Data

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HC Matt LaFleur

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HC Ben Johnson

Saturday 2026-01-10 · 20:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

52.9%

CHI

47.1%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

GB offense: +0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
Jordan Love (GB): +0.252 EPA/dropback in prior starts (GB starting Jordan Love in place of Clayton Tune)
CHI offense: +0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
GB defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 25

–

CHI 24

Projected margin: GB by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

GB

Dontayvion Wicks WR Out Concussion

Nick Niemann LB Questionable Pectoral

Zach Bako-Bewele T Questionable Back

Malik Willis QB Questionable Shoulder

Javon Bullard S Questionable Knee

Warren Brinson DT Questionable Foot

CHI

C.J. Gardner-Johnson CB Out Concussion

Amen Ogbongbemiga LB Out Concussion

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka DE Out Concussion

Braxton Jones T Questionable Knee

Kyler Gordon CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 27

–

CHI 31

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 07:06 FG CHI (7:06) 8-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. GB 0 – CHI 3
Q1 02:11 TD GB (2:11) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI-9-J.Brisker was injured during the play. GB 6 – CHI 3
Q2 06:51 TD GB (6:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 11-J.Reed for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – CHI 3
Q2 02:00 TD GB (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – CHI 3
Q3 10:11 FG CHI (10:11) 8-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. GB 21 – CHI 6
Q4 13:34 FG CHI (13:34) 8-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. GB 21 – CHI 9
Q4 10:12 TD CHI (10:12) 4-D.Swift right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 21 – CHI 15
Q4 06:44 TD GB (6:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 27 – CHI 16
Q4 04:21 TD CHI (4:21) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 14-O.Zaccheaus for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 27 – CHI 22
Q4 01:48 TD CHI (1:48) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 27 – CHI 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 9

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

(7:06) 8-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 62

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 63%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to GB 44 for 18 yards (33-E.Williams).
Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 40

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 57%

(12:30) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left intended for 10-L.Burden INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Valentine at GB 12. 24-C.Valentine to GB 13 for 1 yard (10-L.Burden).
Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 68

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(5:19) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 10-L.Burden (56-E.Cooper).
Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 23

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 89%

(3:33) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson to CHI 1 for 22 yards (29-T.Stevenson). FUMBLES (29-T.Stevenson), recovered by GB-87-R.Doubs at CHI 1.
Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 1

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 37

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 65%

(:37) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep middle to 84-C.Loveland.
Q3 GB 4th & 12 at the 82

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(14:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to CHI 32, Center-42-M.Orzech. 12-D.Duvernay ran ob at CHI 37 for 5 yards (31-N.Niemann).
Q3 CHI 4th & 14 at the 16

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

(10:11) 8-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 55

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP

p(convert) 63%

(8:39) 19-D.Whelan punts 37 yards to CHI 18, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-37-J.Baldwin.
Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 6

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%

(3:18) 18-C.Williams pass short left intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 59-T.Hopper [94-K.Brooks] at GB 2. 59-T.Hopper to GB 9 for 7 yards (85-C.Kmet).
Q3 GB 4th & 9 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(:48) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to CHI 28, Center-42-M.Orzech. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at GB 35 for 37 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
Q4 CHI 4th & 19 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 74%

(13:34) 8-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Q4 GB 4th & 20 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(12:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 58 yards to CHI 12, Center-42-M.Orzech. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 34 for 22 yards (42-M.Orzech).
Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 57

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EP

p(convert) 39%

(5:37) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 15-R.Odunze pushed ob at GB 30 for 27 yards (29-X.McKinney) [58-I.McDuffie].
Q4 GB 4th & 15 at the 26 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 86%

(2:56) 17-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 69 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(1:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at GB 44 for 13 yards (6-K.Gordon).