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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Chicago Bears
4th & 4 at the 37
Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 21
What Actually Happened
(:37) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep middle to 84-C.Loveland.
The Three Options
GO
+0.71 EP
What Happened
-
48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.40 EP
- 52% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.87 EP
KICK
+0.99 EP
Model's Pick
- 65% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
- 35% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT
-0.03 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
