4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 82

Green Bay Packers 21 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(14:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to CHI 32, Center-42-M.Orzech. 12-D.Duvernay ran ob at CHI 37 for 5 yards (31-N.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.31 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 82, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 40, worth -2.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model